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On Sunday, the Central African Republic will conduct a crucial series of four votes, encompassing the presidential race, parliament, and municipal seats.

A Crowded Race for the Presidency

A field of seven contenders are competing for the presidency, among them former prime ministers Anicet Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra. The two were cleared to run by the high court after being initially barred. Dologuélé was the runner-up in the last two elections, while Dondra briefly served under the incumbent.

Challengers' Strategy and Public Discontent

The challengers hopes to tap into widespread frustration in a country where conflict remains a daily reality. More than half a million people are internally displaced, with a comparable figure living as exiles in neighbouring countries.

"This is an opportunity to acknowledge the significant progress of the nation," noted a senior UN diplomat, though he added that obstacles remain.

Touadéra's Expected Victory

Despite the challenges, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a one-time academic, is largely predicted to secure another term. He transitioned into politics in 2008 when named prime minister, serving until a rebel coalition overthrew the government in 2013, sparking a sectarian conflict.

After a turbulent transition period, his reputation for impartiality from the main militias fueled his runoff win in 2016.

Election Risks and Logistical Hurdles

There are fears that supply-chain issues and violence could disrupt the electoral process, particularly in rural areas. The UN peacekeeping mission, Minusca, is offering security and logistical support that the country's weak systems cannot manage.

Further issues involve the electoral roll being published only online, a major hurdle in a country with limited internet access. These irregularities have led to an electoral boycott and could, as noted by analysts, "exclude many of the population."

Stakes of a Third Term

Many citizens fear that another term for Touadéra—enabled by a 2023 charter change that scrapped term limits and lengthened mandates—would mean expanded sway for outside interests.

The president has relied on the Russian mercenary group Wagner for personal security, and despite its founder's death, has pushed back against calls to fold its fighters into a successor entity. In contrast, Rwanda has taken a different approach, focusing on commercial ventures within CAR.

Claims of National Disposal

Allegations have stated the government removed its own soldiers from a World Bank-funded facility to make way for a foreign-run agricultural project. A pro-opposition editorial accused the leadership of being "determined to sell off the nation bit by bit."

Amid a newly signed agreement with rebel groups offering a glimmer of calm, the election proceeds under a shadow of doubt and geopolitical rivalry.