Day-to-Day Homicides in the nation Decline Thirty-Seven Percent During Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Government Data

The typical count of per-day killings each month in the country has fallen by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to recent government figures. Nevertheless, security specialists have cautioned that homicide numbers may not point to enhanced national security.

Notable Decline in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an average of almost 55 killings a day in the month of November versus almost 87 when the President assumed the leadership in September. This information was delivered by the director of the nation's federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that have been recorded during these months is remarkably significant,” the President said, adding that in November the least amount of murders were registered for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Context and Official Plan

Fierce organized crime internal conflicts, alongside the administration's highly militarised operations to take on the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers rise sharply in recent years. The figure peaked at a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's official data agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate over four times higher than the US. From that point, killings have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has attributed her public safety strategy for an ostensibly more pronounced drop in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the head of state stated: “There is a strategy, we have oversight of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring town by town in some cases. The approach functions. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The central elements of the President's safety plan involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative work.
• Enhanced coordination between government authorities.

Expert Caution and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, security researchers cautioned that relying on murder data to paint a picture of peace was problematic. This is notably true considering the uptick in different criminal activities such as people going missing.

“It would be very good information if this were a drop, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the murder data and conclude: ‘Well then, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

According to the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the same timeframe the previous year. However, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in certain states have increased by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is not reliable for estimating the reality of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the capacity or the will to accurately identify and classify corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to mask violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly averages of everyday killings was also problematic because it might mask days when there were especially spiking numbers of murders.

“Employing the per-day mean makes surges of violent crime less visible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

An area where the government can point to the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, according to official data. Over 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Anger

Yet in spite of these measures, Mexico remains grappling with high bloodshed, with several states in the midst of cartel-driven violence. In the previous month there was a prominent killing of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the past year.

A short time after, thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and across the country to voice their outrage at corruption and cartel violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a way to create a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, socially it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas said.