A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
