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PHEVs produce nearly 5x greater global warming pollution than official figures indicate, as per a new analysis.

Widening Discrepancy Between Official and Actual CO2 Output

Data shows that PHEVs emit just 19% lower CO₂ than conventional petrol and diesel vehicles, based on research carried out by a advocacy group. That differs sharply with lab tests, which assumed a 75% decrease in pollution.

Analysts examined data from onboard fuel consumption meters of eight hundred thousand cars sold in Europe from 2021 and 2023. They discovered that real-world CO₂ output from PHEVs in 2023 were nearly five times higher than lab figures, up from 3.5 times in 2021.

“Real-world emissions are rising, while lab-reported figures are falling,” said a lead researcher involved in the report. “This gap is growing and poses a serious problem. Consequently, PHEVs emit nearly as much as petrol vehicles.”

Key Reasons Behind the Discrepancy

Analysts linked most of the gap to overestimates of the “electric driving share” – the percentage of miles travelled in electric mode relative to total distance. The team determined that just a quarter of travel was completed in electric mode, while official estimates assumed 84%.

Even, when operating in EV mode, pollution levels were significantly higher than official projections. That happened because electric motors were insufficiently powerful sufficient to function independently, resulting to combustion motors using fossil fuels for nearly one-third of the travel covered in electric mode.

Policy and Economic Consequences

Based on calculations, the lowballing of PHEV CO2 output enabled four major automaker groups to avoid over €5bn in fines from 2021 and 2023, by artificially simplifying adherence with EU fleet-average CO₂ targets.

Furthermore, owners of PHEVs would spend approximately €500 more per year in operating costs than would be assumed under lab tests.

“The strong claims that manufacturers like to make about their PHEV vehicles are clearly far from the truth,” stated a transport expert. “Buyers are being duped into thinking that by buying a PHEV, they are helping the planet and cutting costs. In reality, PHEVs are little improved than regular petrol and diesel vehicles in terms of energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, and running costs.”

Political Debate and Industry Lobbying

Hybrid cars have recently been brought back into political discussions as carmakers have pressed the European Union to weaken CO₂ targets. A proposed ban on new combustion engine cars in 2035 has faced heavy lobbying from the automotive sector and opposition from EU countries with large automotive manufacturing.

Several high-level officials have suggested PHEVs as a possible “compromise” option to introduce in the regulation.

One independent energy economics expert, who was unaffiliated with the study, described the analysis a “highly valuable contribution” after a long period in which parts of the automotive sector argued there was insufficient information to accurately evaluate actual CO2 output.

“These findings show, beyond any doubt, that the difference in lab and real-world PHEV energy use and CO₂ output is much, much larger than for gasoline or diesel cars,” the expert said. “All policy adjustments regarding PHEVs should be made with utmost caution and considering that evidence.”