Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
