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At first, Donald Trump seemed to embrace a resolute approach regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering threats of "significant repercussions" in August if Putin carried on hindering truce negotiations, he eventually introduced major penalties on Russia's biggest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move seriously hindered Putin's ability to support his aggression in Ukraine.

But, through his latest 28-point peace plan for the conflict, reportedly drafted by both nations' officials excluding Ukrainian or European input, the former president has apparently returned to his Russia-friendly position.

Rewarding Invasion

This proposal would effectively favor the Russian leader for invading Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's political freedom in danger. Despite strong declarations that "The nation's sovereignty will be affirmed", much of the plan actually undermine that same independence. What represents a Moscow's wish would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his business experience, Trump continues to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a basic territorial dispute, implying handing Putin a part of Ukrainian territory will satisfy the ruler. However, Russia's invasion is not merely about controlling a charred swath of deindustrialized land in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about the nation's political system – and Putin's clear goal to destroy it so it ceases to serves as an enticing standard for the Russian citizens of the responsible governance that his deepening autocracy prevents them.

Land Concessions

While keeping in status the already separated Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's proposal would force Ukraine to surrender all of this eastern territory. Aside from benefiting the Russian Federation with land that its forces have been failed to capture in more than a ten years of fighting, this concession would make Ukrainian defenses critically undermined.

Donetsk is the site of the nation's much-vaunted "defensive line", the well-established military defenses that constitute a critical barrier to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine leave these fortifications, providing Putin a clear path to the capital in case he eventually decide to renew the conflict.

Military Reductions

Furthermore, in a step that would facilitate future hostilities easier for Russia, the plan would force Ukraine to cut the numbers of its military from their current 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a limit of 600,000. Notably, Trump's proposal places no such constraints on the invading army.

In what appears as a accommodation to Putin's efforts to characterize Ukraine's democratically elected administration as radicals, Trump's plan asserts: "Any extremist belief system and activities must be opposed and forbidden." Apparently to underscore this aspect, it insists that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, Trump places no requirement that Putin risk his dictatorship by conducting votes in Russia.

Defense Commitments

Admittedly, the proposal includes Russia commit not to "invade bordering nations" and to "establish in legislation its position of non-aggression towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". However taking into account that Putin has violated similar treaties in the previous instances – such as the 1994 agreement, in which Russia committed to respect the nation's territorial integrity in exchange for surrendering its historical nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia promised to a truce and a return of captured areas in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – how should the international community believe Putin now?

That is why Ukraine has been so insistent on external defense commitments. Although the proposal promises a "strong joint military response" in case the Russian Federation restart its invasion, and states that "The nation will receive strong defense commitments", the details range from unclear to concerning. The plan would not just prevent Ukraine Nato membership but also preclude member states from positioning troops on Ukraine's soil, effectively precluding the security presence, likely headed by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to deter Putin from replenishing his weakened troops, restocking, and reinvading.

Global Concern

A separate side agreement apparently would grant the nation with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any later "major, deliberate, and sustained aggression" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "will be treated as an act of war threatening the tranquility of the allied countries." This indicates a defense action. Yet unlike a powerful Ukrainian military – Ukraine's best deterrent against future Russian aggression – the credibility of the parallel accord would rely on the willingness of Western powers, such as Trump, to act with force to Russia's hostilities, an action they have {not